why Vista Forever is A Good Thing

I'm using the expression "Vista Forever" to refer to the long, slow decline of Windows after Microsoft realizes the only way to continue to make money from it is to cease further development beyond bug fixes, security updates, and drivers for new hardware. It presumes that Microsoft will come to their senses before having invested heavily in yet another major iteration of the platform, and that Vista will be the final one. It also presumes that Microsoft will continue to take your money for a copy of Vista for years to come.

The Windows market hates change. That's how Microsoft got so hemmed in by legacy code in the first place. Once it's developed sufficiently to serve their needs, many Windows users would prefer that it stopped changing, as in 'XP is good enough, why do we need Vista?' and 'Does this mean I'm going to have to upgrade all my software again?' (The answer to the first of these is "because Microsoft spent $6 Billion to develop Vista," and the answer to the second is "not necessarily, although it's quite possible.")

A stable system software environment would mean gradual improvement in the performance of other software, as minor bugs are located and fixed. A stable API (basically the same thing) would mean that alternatives, like Wine, have a chance to mature, and you'd eventually be able to run most Windows software on a variety of other platforms, even without a copy of Windows installed. A stable API would also mean that some software which currently exists only on other platforms would finally be ported to Windows, since doing so would become trivial.

Better yet, Windows Forever inevitably means that a license for a copy of Windows would become cheaper and cheaper, as other platforms in a better position to do so continue to evolve rapidly (for a small fraction of what equivalent advances in Windows might cost), further eroding Windows' market share and forcing MS to compete by lowering prices.

As for Microsoft, they'll continue to suck in some revenue from Windows and - once they've written off the $6 Billion development cost of Vista - post profits. They'll also be in a far better position to concentrate on application software and game machines. They'll be fine, really.

It's a win-win scenario. Cheer up! ;-)

futureproofing your tech investments

The writing is already on the wall; the days of the Windows hegemony are numbered.

That's not to say that you'll see either Mac or Linux marketshare pass that of Windows anytime soon, but that the forces that may very well eventually lead to that are already hard at work.

Witness the lukewarm reception with which the world has greeted the release of Windows Vista, the successor to Windows XP, which was itself released half a decade ago, and compare that with the anxious anticipation prompted by the impending release of Mac OS X 10.5 (Leopard), the successor to 10.4 (Tiger), which was itself released only two years ago.

The plain fact is that Windows's rivals don't have to grab >50% marketshare to drive it into the ground; they merely have to apply enough pressure to make further development unprofitable for Microsoft, and that may already have happened. Microsoft spent a huge amount of money on Vista, and may not have anything to show for it at the end of the day.

Granted that Vista Forever is likely to last quite a bit longer than some other abandonware has, with continued updates to important applications for years to come, but sooner or later it has to grind to a halt, and hanging on as the market moves on to something else is sure to become an increasingly expensive proposition.

Is it time to jump ship? Well, if you're heavily invested in Windows software, maybe not, but it probably is time to begin to consider other options and, where possible, reduce the degree to which you're locked in to Windows.

If you're not heavily invested in Windows software, then now is as good a time as any! By most accounts, Mac OS X is a superior operating system, and several Linux distributions at least merit a serious look. Also, the advantage that Windows once enjoyed in the availability of application software is fast dwindling, as more and more publishers come out with Mac and/or Linux versions.

For people working in IT, it's high time to consider whether you might not be too young to spend the rest of your career patching Vista.

Think about it.