another perspective on military robotics

The Inkwell discussion mentioned below is now underway.

See Inkwell.vue topic #352 on The WELL.

-----

I just finished reading P.W. Singer's "Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century", in preparation for his appearance in The WELL's Inkwell conference.

As far as military robotics goes, I guess I come down on the side of wanting to ban the combination of autonomy and lethal weaponry. If you want to mount nonlethal weapons on an autonomous drone, I'd say that's a step up from lethal weapons on one that's remotely piloted, and I have no more problem with it than I have with war in general.

Really though, I'm standing off to the side suppressing a scream, because I see the gathering storm of military robotics as a huge distraction from more mundane, constructive applications, even though there may be some eventual technological benefit to those other applications, and even though I can't state with confidence that any other application is actually being delayed because of it.

The application I've discussed elsewhere, at length, is the use of robotics to replace energy intensive traction-based agricultural practices with practices modeled on those of (attention intensive) horticulture, using robotic sensors, processors, and effectors to deal with seeds, plants, and small patches of ground on an individual basis, much as a gardener would, but on a sufficiently large scale to at least begin to displace the heavy, dumb equipment in current use.

Taking a moment to compose myself, I have to admit that the prospects for my pet project are somewhat improved by any real-world application of robotics, even a military one, but that only helps me suppress the scream.

easy come, almost easy go

The web-viewable WELL conference to which I referred two posts back, is already history, for lack of participation, although its existence, combined with my initial choice of topics, stirred up something of a hornets nest.

The existence of the conference was problematic because it was the first of its type, a web-viewable conference not linked from the WELL's homepage and, within very broad limits, entirely the responsibility of the host (me), and more importantly because it was opened without prior notice to the WELL's membership, and appeared to be a special privilege that management had extended to me and me alone.

The topic list was problematic because I chose to address a subject that isn't normally discussed in polite company, and generally only discussed derisively in impolite company - autoeroticism (masturbation) - intending to treat it as a respectable, altogether normal aspect of private human behavior. Not only was that topic (#4) quickly derailed by a very creative lampoon, but I discovered to my chagrin that many of my fellow WELL members weren't comfortable with any such discussion happening in full view of the world at large, on track or not, never mind that there might be far racier material tucked away in other conferences and on members' web pages.

The conference's URL now redirects to the "Lost on The WELL?" page, which seems appropriate, and I find myself hardly caring that it didn't work out.

Intel invests in America

Understand that I'm not particularly a fan of Intel, so it's quite an occasion when I'm moved to congratulate them for anything. True, I pay attention to what's coming from them, and anticipate using faster machines in the future, made possible by their advances, but I'm a Mac guy, and I don't run Windows on my own machine, so I'd be just as happy if the processor within it came from someone else, so long as the performance/price was comparable.

What's moving me to take off my hat to them is their decision to invest $7 billion to upgrade facilities located in the United States. Sure, there are probably sound business reasons for doing so, but they might just as easily have chosen to move remaining domestic production outside the country, for a different set of sound business reasons. They didn't, and for this they deserve our thanks and a hearty slap on the back.

Actually, I have to say that Intel's been doing a lot of things right lately, although it rankles just a bit to admit it.

tempest in a fishbowl

How it came to be would be difficult to accurately describe to anyone not familiar with the inner workings of The WELL, but I find myself the host of a new conference that's viewable by anyone, WELL member or not.

Aside form being world-readable, Plain.vue is rather generic, as WELL conferences go, taking its character from those who choose to participate and what and how they choose to post. As there's no shortage of wit on The WELL, Plain.vue could turn out to be very entertaining, but it remains to be seen how it will develop.

Do stop by!

(6/27/09) Note that this development turned out to be a flash in the pan, and that all of the above links which appear to point to it now lead to another post in this blog, dated 2/18/09 and titled easy come, almost easy go.

blame me for digital broadcast TV

True, me being responsible for digital TV is really a huge stretch, monumental, tectonic. But, heh, I'm used to it; I can take it, so go ahead and blame me.

You see, back in the mid-to-late eighties, I spent some time hanging out on CompuServe, originally for the Atari forum, but gradually giving more attention to the Whole Earth forum, hosted by Tom Mandel of SRI. It was about the same time CompuServe decided to close down that forum that I joined The WELL for the first time.

Anyway, Tom popped off the question why computer monitors weren't up to the quality of television, and several of us shot back that it wasn't the hardware, which typically had higher specs than TVs, but the signals generated by computers, because they actually had to synthesize those signals instead of it all just being a recording or a live image. This was followed by a brief discussion of character based displays versus bit-mapping, as well as then emerging analog HD television technologies.

It was then, dismayed at the prospect of having to go through two or more such transitions, that I asked the fateful question, "When are we going to get digital broadcast?" I don't know for a fact that Tom ever passed along that question, but he was certainly well positioned to do so.

Here we are twenty-something years later and analog TV is about to be shut down, and the radio spectrum it used reallocated. I can't help but wonder whether I was the flapping butterfly that set this storm in motion. Nah, what's the chance of that?

Update: Congress has approved the delay of the switchover until June 12th.

an open letter to President Obama

Dear Mr. President,

Congratulations on your victory and kudos for the manner in which you've conducted the transition.

Rather than ticking through a long list of issues on which we agree, allow me to focus in on an item of your agenda that in my humble opinion deserves even more emphasis than it has already received, retooling.

Not only do our factories need to be retooled to produce the wind machines and solar panels that will help us towards sustainability, but all elements of our infrastructure need close examination.

For instance, in urban core areas, it is not enough to resurface existing streets and highways and maintain mass transit in the face of state and local budget cuts, although these things are needed in the short term. For the longer term, however, a very different approach is needed, one which combines the complete exclusion of conventional private vehicles from the densest areas, with the provision of convenient, fast, comfortable, and affordable transit systems, of the sort described here http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/, with sufficient capacity to handle even peak demand without congestion.

In suburban and rural areas there is an opportunity for vast improvement in the manner in which we manage land, at once dramatically reducing dependence on petroleum products and improving the sustainability of our agricultural production, through the applicaton of a combination of robotic hardware and expert system software, described in general terms here http://cultibotics.blogspot.com/.

Of these, the former is essentially ready for deployment, having already been the object of much engineering work, whereas for the latter that work remains to be done, and the only proactive decision available at the moment is to set about it, making funds available to underwrite joint projects involving ecologists, agronomists, horticulturalists, and agricultural, mechanical, electrical, and software engineers. This project is very likely one of those that only government can accomplish.

You've inspired us to believe that the previously undoable may now be doable. I hope I've managed to return the favor.

watch for the Steve Jobs cookbook!

So now we know.

Good for Steve for putting his health ahead of doing one last Macworld keynote.

Now, considering that the essence of his health troubles has been a hormone imbalance resulting in an effective protein deficiency, and considering that he's famously vegan, and also that he's a stickler for details, you can bet he'll come away from this with a few more recipes to add to his collection, which is likely already pretty interesting. ;-)

out with a bang, Apple's final appearance at Macworld

This may be Apple's last time at Macworld, but don't expect the company to go out with a whimper. They've gone to the trouble to be there one last time, and they'll be wanting some marketing mileage in return.

The rumor mill seems nearly certain that both the iMac and the Mac mini will see updates at MWSF-09. There's also speculation about a revised Time Capsule with expanded functionality. Some think Apple TV will become a Mac application, given that all new Macs will have video hardware adequate to the task, when combined with signal/pinout converters in dongles. And many anticipate the demonstration of a nearly complete Snow Leopard.

I have a hunch there's something else, something that's completely escaped the attention of the rumor mill, and that the presentation of this something is the main reason Phil Schiller will be acting as emcee for the keynote. But that's all I'm going to say about it, because I don't want to spoil the surprise in the off-chance that I'm right about what that something might be.

So, rather than talk about that, let me just say that those in attendance at the keynote shouldn't be too surprised if Steve Jobs shows up as a Max Headroom-like character, not only on the main screen but also on their laptops and phones, providing a humorous counterpoint to Schiller's uncharacteristically deadpan delivery. Something equally unexpected is likely to happen. ;-)

parallels between Steve Jobs and Mao Zedong, and where they break down

Make no mistake about it, Steve Jobs is a capitalist, if not by predilection then at least by necessity and long association, and as such he's done rather well.

But you don't have to scratch him very deeply to find a sort of revolutionary, someone who can't abide the absence of progress. In this he's rather like Mao, who became nervous as ‘his’ revolution seemed to be reaching a conclusion, even if a nominally successful one. Jobs is a wiser man than Mao, however, and his inclination to keep pushing forward is unlikely to produce anything even remotely analogous to the widespread devastation that precipitated from some of Mao's less clueful decisions. The withering of Macworld is about as close as you're likely to see, and there's good arguments on both sides for that.

But, just as Mao retired rather early as head of state, you can expect Jobs to increasingly leave the day-to-day details to others, even if he remains CEO for a few more years. In his case it's likely to be a conscious decision from the outset, to free up his time, enabling him to give more attention to Apple's long term future, and for those close enough to him to have a good idea of what he's choosing to spend time on, the degree to which he becomes personally involved with any deal or issue will be a good measure of how critical he views it as being over the long term.

This doesn't play as well to the public as a keynote, but once he quits emceeing any keynotes himself, if and when he shows up for a cameo, whether in person or via remote link, pay close attention to what he has to say; it will have a density of significance many times that of the casual comments he might make in the context of a longer presentation, and you can bank on it not being hogwash.

marching to someone else's drummer

Appleinsider quotes Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf as saying "I think Apple wants to get away from the tyranny of MacWorld where it is forced to introduce new products on IDG's schedule, rather than its own."

This makes perfect sense.