an open letter to M. Ahmadinejad

How will it go for you, Mahmoud, when the tables are finally turned, when the mud falls from the eyes of those who currently wonder what all the ruckus is about and they find common cause with the protestors?

Will you be hung, like Saddam? Will you spend the rest of your life behind bars? Will men spit as they say your name?

Where will you hide?

If you believe there is justice in Islam, then understand it will come back upon you, for you have disgraced it.

digging in for a long-term struggle

While there might still be a slim chance for a resolution that would allow Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to save face, and a somewhat greater chance of him being turned out by the Assembly (Council) of Experts, at this point the most likely outcome of the current crisis in Iran appears to be a protracted, mainly clandestine struggle against a government that has squandered its last shred of legitimacy.

It's time for contingency plans for setting up refugee camps to be dusted off, and time to alert the ex-pat Iranian community to be ready to take in those who choose to flee, to keep the number who remain vulnerable along the borders small.

It's time for those within the country to start thinking about damage containment and organizing themselves for a long-term struggle, including such details as what they might use as detention centers for the Basij, when the time comes for that. More immediately, capturing small groups, subjecting them to criticism, and leaving them handcuffed, using the same sort of plastic straps that are commonly used in construction, strikes me as a useful tactic, to get across to the Basij that some people think they are the bad guys, deserving of punishment.

It's time for outsiders, such as ourselves, to shelve plans for destabilization and redirect our efforts to exercising a bit of control over the manner in which the Iranian government crumbles, as much as possible mitigating collateral damage.

an American President with gravitas, how inconvenient

Inconvenient, that is, for the likes of Iran's Ahmadinejad, whose abrasive manner now comes off as mere impertinence by comparison, despite the thousands of thugs ready to do his bidding. That this pathetic shell of a man, whose thugs have heaped abuse upon truehearted Iranians for protesting obviously, indefensibly fraudulent election results, should criticize Obama for expressing outrage beggars belief. Snakes have more integrity!

contextual succession shock

After the discussion with P.W. Singer, I set to work on a much delayed programming project, with some progress to show for it at this point, but not without a week or so of fairly serious disorientation, as I basically forced myself to switch modes.

Frankly, while programming is something that comes pretty easy for me, the tuning out of most else doesn't, and I have to take frequent breaks from that, so progress comes in fits and starts, as I'm able to concentrate on the task at hand.

I gather there's something quite interesting and both hopeful and disturbing happening in Iran, but I really don't understand it, how it sorts out into sides with differing agendas. Nevertheless, I hope for a peaceful resolution that at least a majority of Iranians would term just, and that the rest can live with until the next election.

Peace be with you, all of my misguided brethren; the sun will rise again tomorrow, whether we can see it or not.